Quarterly
Market Update Q1 2026 NL
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Quarterly
Q1 2026 confirms that the fine wine market has moved beyond the most difficult phase of its recent cycle. After nearly three years of correction following the post‑pandemic bull market, conditions have continued to normalise. Pricing, liquidity and investor behaviour all point to a market transitioning from stabilisation into the early stages of recovery.
While price appreciation remains measured, the direction of travel is increasingly constructive. Since late 2025, the secondary market has shown improving balance between buyers and sellers, with greater consistency of trade and a narrowing of volatility across key indices. This type of orderly recovery is historically characteristic of fine wine, where sustainable growth tends to follow periods of consolidation rather than sharp rebounds.
Encouragingly, this improvement is broad‑based: trading activity has increased, bid depth has strengthened, and buyer confidence has continued to rebuild across regions.
One of the most important signals throughout Q1 has been the persistence of the recovery. The Liv‑ex Fine Wine 100 closed the quarter positive, marking six consecutive months of price stability or growth and extending the recovery that began in late 2025. Over the past six months, the index has risen approximately 3.9%, despite modest month‑to‑month fluctuations.
While short‑term movements remain muted, this consistency is significant. In previous cycles, phases characterised by price stability after extended corrections have tended to precede stronger multi‑year performance, particularly for globally recognised benchmark wines. Prices remain well below the peaks reached in 2021–2022, but supported price levels are now forming, suggesting the market is laying foundations rather than searching for direction.
Trading conditions strengthened meaningfully over the quarter. Data from Liv‑ex indicates:
Importantly, improving liquidity has not been limited to a handful of trophy wines. Trading has become more consistent across established producers and benchmark vintages, suggesting renewed confidence rather than speculative trading.
Bordeaux continues to stand out as one of the most compelling regions from a risk‑adjusted investment perspective. Many of the region’s greatest recent vintages, notably 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016 and 2019, still trade at meaningful discounts to their prior highs and, in some cases, below replacement cost (of more recent vintages).
During Q1, trade volumes improved notably, particularly for Left Bank wines. Older vintages and recently corrected First Growth releases attracted renewed interest, underpinned by improved pricing discipline and returning Asian demand. With deep liquidity, global recognition and long-term consumption demand, Bordeaux remains central to long-duration portfolio construction.
Burgundy remains highly polarised. The most sought‑after names, including Domaine de la Romanée‑Conti, Rousseau, Leflaive and Raveneau, continue to trade actively, with prices holding firm. Trade volumes in January were among the strongest of the past five years, reflecting renewed engagement from European and Asian buyers.
In contrast, lesser‑known producers remain under pressure. Scarcity, brand strength and global reputation continue to be the decisive factors in this market. The release of the exceptionally small 2024 vintage has also reinforced the structural scarcity underpinning elite Burgundy over the long term.
Champagne showed a mixed but improving picture. While the broader category remains price‑sensitive, top cuvées such as Salon, Krug and Dom Pérignon saw stronger demand. Bid‑offer ratios within the Champagne 50 improved materially, pointing to renewed buyer interest at current levels.
Italy once again demonstrated its relative stability. Super Tuscans and leading Piedmont producers traded steadily, supported by broad geographic demand. While price appreciation has been more modest compared to Bordeaux and top Burgundy, this also suggests potential opportunity as the cycle progresses.
The Rhône performed strongly at the upper end of the market, particularly for rare wines such as Rayas, while the broader category remained variable. California remained stable, with continued interest in leading cult producers, particularly from Asian buyers.
The broader economic environment remains uncertain, shaped by lingering inflation concerns, geopolitical tension and shifting interest rate expectations. Historically, such conditions have tended to increase investor interest in tangible, scarcity‑driven assets with low correlation to traditional financial markets.
Against this backdrop, portfolio activity throughout Q1 remained disciplined.
Our focus has been on:
This approach reflects our conviction that periods of stabilization, rather than late‑cycle exuberance, offer the most attractive risk‑adjusted opportunities for long‑term investors.
With six consecutive months of market stability now established, improving liquidity and rising investor participation, the direction of travel for the fine wine market is increasingly positive. While the recovery remains orderly rather than rapid, the evidence suggests that the market has moved through the most challenging phase of the cycle.
Looking ahead, periods such as this, where prices remain below previous peaks but momentum and confidence are improving, have historically proven to be highly attractive for building long‑term fine wine portfolios ahead of broader appreciation.
As always, our strategy remains focused on patience, selectivity, and disciplined capital allocation, with the objective of positioning the portfolio for the next sustained growth phase rather than chasing short‑term market movements.
