Quarterly
Market Update Q4 2025 NL
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Quarterly
Q4 2025 marked an important turning point for the fine wine market. After an extended period of falling prices and cautious trading, conditions began to stabilise. While a full recovery is not yet underway, the market is showing clearer signs of balance. Prices are no longer falling across the board, trading activity has improved, and buyer confidenceis gradually returning.
Looking ahead to 2026, several longer-term trends support a more constructive outlook. Consumer behaviour is shifting towards fewer but higher-quality purchases, luxury spending in Asia is recovering, and today’s lower price levels are attracting new collectors. Together, these factors are helping to rebuild demand and lay the groundwork for the next market cycle.
After several years of price declines, Q4 showed a meaningful change in direction. Instead of continued downward pressure, prices across many key indices began to move sideways. Some segments even recorded modest gains toward the end of the year. Although prices remain below their 2022 highs, the pace of decline has clearly slowed, suggesting that the market is finding a more stable footing.
Another positive signal has been the improvement in trading conditions. Buyers and sellers are increasingly willing to transact at similar price levels, allowing more deals to be completed. This improvement has not been limited to a small number of famous wines; it has extended across a wider range of established labels. This points to growing confidence rather than short-term speculation.
Demand in Q4 focused on well-known, globally recognised wines with strong track records. Labels such as Sassicaia, Opus One,and Lafite traded more consistently, with prices holding steady or edging higher. Buyers are still selective, but they are clearly willing to commit capital when pricing feels fair and transparent. This behaviour is typical of an early accumulation phase.
Bordeaux remains the most compelling opportunity in the current market. Many of the region’s greatest vintages — including 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016, and 2019 — are trading well below their previous peaks and, in many cases, below what it would cost to replace them today.
At the same time, trading activity has improved. Iconic wines are changing hands more regularly, and interest from Asian buyers has returned. This combination of lower prices, improving liquidity, and broad international demand makes Bordeaux particularly attractive from a long-term investment perspective.
Burgundy continues to be divided. The most sought-after producers — such as Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, Rousseau, and Raveneau — remain highly liquid and in demand, especially among Asian buyers. Prices for these wines have held up well. In contrast, less established producers continue to face pressure. Scarcity and reputation remain the key drivers of value in this region.
Italy once again demonstrated its resilience. Super Tuscans and leading Barolo producers ranked among the most actively traded wines globally. Their broad appeal across different buyer groups continues to support prices.
Champagne showed a mixed picture. Prestige cuvées such as Salon and Cristal remained stable, while demand for grower Champagnes softened. As a result, the broader Champagne market remains under some pressure, though the top names continue to perform well.
The Rhône benefited from steady demand for rare wines, particularly Rayas (also partly because of the passing of the owner Reynaud), which supported prices. Piedmont was softer overall due to weaker U.S. demand, although iconic names such as Bartolo Mascarello and Giacomo Conterno remained relatively unaffected. California remained stable, with consistent interest in its leading cult wines.
The broader economic backdrop remained mixed throughout the quarter. High interest rates continued to weigh on discretionary spending, but the outlook began to improve toward year-end as rate cuts came closer into view. This has helped reduce the opportunity cost of holding alternative assets such as fine wine.
Encouragingly, luxury consumption in Asia has shown renewed strength. Strong results from global luxury brands point to improving consumer confidence in the region. Historically, increased luxury spending in Asia has translated into higher fine wine consumption, supporting long-term demand.
History suggests that fine wine markets tend to recover gradually after periods of price adjustment. With prices now more realistic and trading activity improving, 2026 could mark the transition from stabilisation to early growth. Any recovery is likely to be measured rather than rapid, but the foundations are increasingly in place.
Across luxury markets, consumers are increasingly choosing quality over quantity. This is visible in high-end dining, travel, and collectible assets. Rather than spending less overall, buyers are focusing on better experiences and higher-quality products. This trend strongly supports demand for top-tier wines.
Lower prices are also encouraging newparticipants. Today’s market allows newer collectors to access benchmark winesthat were previously out of reach. This is important for long-term demand, asmany of the strongest collectors begin by buying and drinking these iconicwines before expanding their cellars over time.
Looking ahead, upcoming vintages are expected to be smaller in volume, which may limit future supply. If release pricing is disciplined, this could help restore confidence in the primary market and support prices once these wines reach maturity.
Beyond investment considerations, broader cultural shifts are also shaping demand. Consumers are increasingly interested in authenticity, provenance, and craftsmanship. Wine is being enjoyed more aspart of curated experiences — tastings, private dining, and cellar building —rather than casual consumption. This reinforces the appeal of established, high-quality producers.
Q4 2025 represents an important moment for the fine wine market. After a prolonged correction, conditions are stabilising, liquidity is improving, and buyer confidence is slowly returning. While challenges remain, the overall direction is more constructive than it has beenfor some time.
As we move into 2026, our focus remains firmly on selecting the highest-quality wines at attractive prices, backed by global demand and long-term scarcity. For investors willing to be patient and disciplined, the current environment offers a compelling opportunity to build positions ahead of the next market upswing.
