Quarertly
Market Update Q2 2025 NL
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Quarterly
The second quarter of 2025 showed that while the fine wine market hasn’t fully shaken off its recent sluggishness, the picture is no longer just about declines. Index losses are slowing, trade volumes are holding, and certain regions, even certain wines, are starting to show real signs of life again. Pricing remains under pressure inplaces, but the tone has shifted: this is now a market looking for, and in some cases finding, its footing.
A quick refresher for context: the Liv-ex indices, published by the London International VintnersExchange, track secondary market pricing across regions and producers.The Liv-ex 1000, the most comprehensive index, gives a broad market read, while others like the Champagne 50 or Burgundy 150 zoom in on specific regions.
The Liv-ex 1000 slipped another 2.3% in Q2, not ideal, but a gentler drop than previous quarters.Champagne actually broke its losing streak in June, with the Champagne50 inching up into positive territory. Elsewhere, declines were milder, and activity levels in May and June suggested growing confidence in key are as of the market.
Merchant flows and secondary offers are increasingly focused on wines with corrected pricing, vintage maturity, and reliable track records. Liquidity is still patchy, but where it exists, it’s increasingly competitive. Vinum reports suggest inventories are moving again, slowly, but steadily.
There’s also a clear uptick in Asian buying. Hong Kong and Singapore are back in the game, especially for Burgundy and Champagne. It’s not a flood, but after silence since 2023, any sign of re-engagement from Asia adds welcome stability.
U.S. Tariffs: Not a Knockout Blow
The April tariff announcement caused a stir, but so far, the impact has been less disruptive than feared. Most high-end wines have avoided major price shocks. That’s partly thanks to the way tariffs are applied on ex-cellar prices, not retail, and partly due to the nature of fine wine buyers: less price-sensitive, more long-term focused. U.S. merchants are adapting by drawing on existing stock, and buyers are finding workarounds.
Selective Recovery Underway
Yes, the broader market is still soft. But within that, there are winners. Mid-year price reports highlight solid performance from certain top-tier names with global cachet, think of Domaine de la Romanee Conti, Screaming Eagle, Vega Sicilia, and the Sassicaia’s of this world. This is not a rising-tide environment, it’s a stock-picker’s market, and the same logic applies to wine. Investors are being selective, and it’s working.
Auction Signals: Steady Hands Prevail
Auction results were broadly in line with market expectations, with no panic selling or wild bidding. That’s a good sign. Global sales, especially in London and Hong Kong, showed that demand for well-stored, top-quality wines remains intact. Collectors are still buying; they’re just being more cautious and price-aware.
Supply Picture Tightens
The 2024 vintage is shaping up to be one of the smallest in recent memory. Poor flowering, mildew, and hail hit many key regions. This hasn’t made headlines yet, but it will.Expect renewed focus on back vintages as allocations for the next release shrink. Scarcity is quietly making a comeback which can benefit our existing portfolio.
Asia Steps Back In
The return of Asian buying interest is arguably the most meaningful shift in Q2. Liv-ex data shows a clear increase in trade activity from Singapore and Taiwan, while Vinum notes more allocations heading to Hong Kong. Historically, Asia has been a demand anchor for Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Champagne. Their renewed presence could mark a turning point for sentiment going into H2.
· Burgundy – Still two-speed: weakness among mid-tier producers, but top domaines like DRC, Leroy, and Rousseau are holding firm. Increased interest in earlier vintages with proven upside.
· Bordeaux – Stable. First Growths and Super Seconds continue to trade well, with renewed demand from Asia and U.S. buyers. En Primeur was quiet but professional, no fireworks, no drama. The fund is less interested in the En Primeur campaign due to the campaigns short history of high release prices, and a 2024 vintage which was below average in quality.
· Champagne – Finally stabilizing. The Champagne 50 stopped falling in June, and houses like Krug and Dom Pérignon are seeing more action again. Cristal is showing great liquidity with high trade volumes at or above market price. Grower Champagnes remain sluggish.
· Tuscany – 2020 Brunello release was well received and quickly absorbed. Older vintages of Super Tuscans are turning over steadily, helped by strong critic support and tight pricing.
· California – Activity in top Napa names like Harlan and Screaming Eagle remains steady, especially for stock held in Europe (and thus untouched by U.S. tariff issues). European buyers still interested.
· Piedmont – A quiet, steady performer. Barolo from Bartolo Mascarello, Roagna, and Conterno remains in favour. 2013 and 2016 still dominate collector buying.
There’s no sudden turnaround here, but there’s also no collapse. Pricing is adjusting, and in some segments, it may already have done enough. With the 2024 vintage set to be small, tariffs largely digested, and Asia buying again, the second half of the year could look quite different from the first.
We remain disciplined and selective, this isn’t a market to chase. But where the pricing, pedigree, and liquidity line up, the opportunity set is improving. The key now is to stay patient, stay picky, and keep focused on wines that can weather volatility and compound value over time.
