Quarterly
Market Update Q3 2025 NL
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Quarterly
The fine wine market in Q3 remained cautious but increasingly balanced.Prices are still soft, yet declines are slowing, volumes are steadier, and in key areas, most notably Bordeaux, we are seeing the first signs of renewed confidence. While this is not a broad recovery, the quarter marked an important shift: instead of continuous correction, the market now feels as though it is laying the foundation for the next cycle.
The broader economic backdrop continues to shape sentiment. Persistent high interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and muted U.S. demand have all weighed on discretionary purchases. Yet fine wine merchant turnover has remained stable, the market has not broken below its 2020 trough, and Asia is re-emerging as a powerful buyer.
Luxury markets offer an important parallel. Over the summer, both LVMH and especially Kering saw stock prices rise sharply on the back of stronger Asian sales, particularly in Hong Kong and mainland China. This rebound is significant: historically, when luxury demand in Asia accelerates, fine wine consumption follows. The return of discretionary spending in the region is already visible in trade flows, where buyers fromHong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan have stepped in to absorb volumes that U.S.clients have left untouched.
The secondary market benchmarks underscore this stabilisation. The Liv-ex 100, which tracks the 100 most-traded wines globally, ended September just above its 2020 low after only marginal declines in the summer. The broader Liv-ex 1000, which captures regional markets, was flat in Q3, with indices for Italy and the Rhône even edging higher. The picture is not one of broad strength, but of a market that is finding equilibrium.
The clearest opportunity is emerging in Bordeaux. After years of drifting lower, many of the region’s greatest vintages of the past two decades are trading at levels rarely seen in over a decade. TheBordeaux Legends 40 index, which follows benchmark vintages, is showing firm signs of bottoming, with several iconic wines attracting active bidding again.
The shift can be illustrated through concrete examples. Petrus 2009, a wine that epitomises modern Bordeaux, recovered from around £30,000 per 12x75 in spring to closer to £35,000 by late summer. Latour 2010, one of the most celebrated wines of its generation, has found consistent support and is trading steadily at levels that look attractive versus its history. Cos d’Estournel 2016 has regained momentum after earlier softness, now drawing steady merchant demand, while Lafleur 2019, which initially suffered from an inflated release price, has corrected to more compelling levels and is seeing renewed interest.
This is not limited to a handful of names. Across the First Growths and leading Right Bank estates, prices are down 20–30% from peak, and yet liquidity is improving. CI Partners is focusing on vintages with proven critical acclaim and long drinking windows — 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016, and 2019 stand out. In contrast, younger and less established releases such as 2020–2022 continue to face headwinds, suggesting that the market is rewarding pedigree and patience rather than novelty.
In many ways, Bordeaux is beginning to resemble the opportunity it has historically provided after previous downturns: legendary vintages trading well below replacement cost, backed by global demand and limited long-term downside. Asian buyers have been particularly active in this segment, signalling confidence that Bordeaux’s position at the heart of fine wine portfolios remains unchallenged. Stocks of Bordeaux remain unusually high, as many merchants resisted selling at lower levels over the past two years. The recent correction has shifted the balance, creating a moment where we can negotiate firmly and secure legendary wines at truly exceptional prices.
Elsewhere, the market was more uneven. Burgundy remained split between the very top and the rest. Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, Rousseau, and Raveneau continue to attract strong bidding, especially from Asia, while mid-tier producers remain under pressure. Tuscany showed its usual resilience, with Sassicaia and Ornellaia ranking among the most-traded wines worldwide. Champagne presented a mixed picture, with Cristal and Salon steady but grower Champagnes softening, leaving the Champagne 50 index under pressure. The Rhône and Sauternes offered rare bright spots, with Rayas and a handful of Sauternes names pushing their respective indices modestly higher. Piedmont softened without U.S. demand, though Bartolo Mascarello and Giacomo Conterno remain insulated, while California was stable, with Screaming Eagle and Harlan continuing to dominate Rest of the World trading.
The fine wine market is not yet in recovery mode, but the foundations for a turn are visible. The 2024 vintage is expected to bring smaller volumes, which will constrain future supply. Asian buying, reinforced by the broader rebound in luxury consumption, has returned as a stabalising force. Meanwhile, the most closely watched market indicators are consolidating near long-term support levels.
At CI Partners, we are taking this moment to be as selective as ever. This quarter alone we have reviewed more than 200 offers that met our investment criteria and were priced below market, but only acted on a fraction of them. Our focus remains on those wines, across Bordeaux, Burgundy, Italy, and beyond, that we believe can deliver the strongest long-term returns for our investors, leveraging both the current pricing environment and our ability to negotiate firmly with merchants.
For investors prepared to be patient and deliberate, Q3 2025 feels less like the end of a correction and more like the start of a new cycle of accumulation, one in which Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Italy will each play important roles, supported by Asia’s reawakening demand and the long-term structural resilience of fine wine as an asset class.
